[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH MAX SEAS TO 12 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND MEXICO BY TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY IT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-77W.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 14 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 03N19W AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W
TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 14W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A 1001
MB SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...A
SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES EXTENDING FROM
29N95W TO 24N96W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL W OF 92W WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED ACROSS
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A FRESH
TO STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF
THE GALE WARNING AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS.
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALSO. THE HIGH
WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CREATING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHER CARIBBEAN WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 14N70W TO 16N61W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE
SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL S OF THE
LINE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE GALE
WINDS TO DEVELOP S OF 13N.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES
STABILITY TO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 30N73W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM
32N42W TO 16N61W THEN AS A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 24N BETWEEN 34W-42W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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