[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY NEAR GALE OR
GALE IN...AGADIR AND TARFAYA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N16W TO
05N21W 01N30W AND 01N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN
10W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD MOSTLY BETWEEN
35W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 92W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N83W...TO 25N87W...INTO
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...AND KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. LIFR IN ALICE. MVFR IN ROBSTOWN AND CORPUS CHRISTI AND
PORT LAVACA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. MVFR IN
BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. IN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI...VFR/ NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...MVFR IN THE MOBILE
METROPOLITAN AREA. FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
HONDURAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO PANAMA AND 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.25 IN
ST.THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN
PUERTO RICO...0.08 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.07 IN KINGSTON IN
JAMAICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W
AND 70W...IN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET ALSO. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 9000 FEET. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
CLOSE TO THE AREA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE CHANGES IN THE WIND DIRECTION...EITHER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE WEST...AND/OR THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AS A TROUGH FORMS FROM PUERTO
RICO TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY TWO...IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE THAT
DEVELOPS FROM AN EVENTUAL 33N76W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 76W/77W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N65W...
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
48W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.18 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N28W TO
23N30W AND 14N35W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N45W 23N46W AND
13N51W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 26N79W AND TO 21N78W ON
THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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