[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 23N65W TO E
HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N W OF FRONT
TO 63W WITH NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR 24 HOURS AFTER ONSET...AS THE FRONT AND
GALE AREA MOVES E. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF
AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...
MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR
ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/
BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W AND EXTENDS TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 14W-
20W...AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 20W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 01N-
04S BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 34N77W. 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF
WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SE RETURN
FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN TIP OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE N HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 20N64W TO 15N70W. SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 61W-72W. 15-20
KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...15-25
KT E WINDS ARE OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CUBA..THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CUBA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FOUND.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES E. MORE
TRADEWIND SHOWERS WILL BE S OF THE ISLAND HOWEVER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N57W TO
HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO
20N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
BETWEEN 50W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
AZORES NEAR 39N29W. METEO-FRANCE HAS GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 30N10W. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF20N BETWEEN 40W-55W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N47W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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