[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II.
NORTHERLY TO GALE FORCE WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
31N53W TO 23N58W TO 18N67W. THE AREA OF SW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
BE N OF 28N WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT AND NW GALE FORCE WINDS N
OF 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH MON EVENING/NIGHT THEN GO BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY
TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N15W ALONG 5N17W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
4N15W TO 3N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N W OF
48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA ALONG 25N91W TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH
TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS MONRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC AND
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W GULF WED. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 83W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD S INTO THE NW AND N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TODAY AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N
BETWEEN 64W AND 80W LATE TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WILL RETURN OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BY TUE AND PULSE AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WED
NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY THEN THE MERGED FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING BY
TUE EVENING INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W
ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
BERMUDA ALONG 28N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 27N64W TO
JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20.5N73.5W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WITHIN
45 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 22N
BETWEEN 50W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS MORNING
THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE TRAILS THE FRONT OVER W ATLC AND WILL
BUILD S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE N WINDS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT OVER NE WATERS WILL
SHIFT E LATE TODAY. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE N
COAST OF CUBA TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net