[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II.
NORTHERLY TO GALE FORCE WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT IN TARFAYA AND FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN AGADIR. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...
GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT MON
AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N57W TO 25N60W TO 20N72W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF 29N BETWEEN 54W-64W. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT E
THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN N OF THE AREA EARLY TUE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-27W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N W OF 46W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W GULF EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG 26N93W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1023 MB
HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA AND A STRONGER 1026 MB HIGH OVER WEST
VIRGINIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERS THE S GULF S OF 25N. HOWEVER...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
GULF TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LOCALLY TO STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE BY MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
W GULF BY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT N OF HAITI COUPLED WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 14N-18N W OF 80W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT OVER THE NW AND N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LEE OF
CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY MON AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE TUE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WILL RETURN OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE AND PULSE AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ISLAND TONIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT JUST N OF
HAITI AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT IN THE W
ATLC WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EARLY ON MON THEN THE
MERGED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY TUE
CONTINUING TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME
CLEARING BY WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W
ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 31N68W 27N71W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND THROUGH
32N57W ALONG 26N65W TO JUST N OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EARLY ON MON THEN THE MERGED
FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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