[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS BEING EMITTED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF
AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II...AND LOCALLY IN CANARIAS.
NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA AND
THEN CONTINUES INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N15W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W AND 28W AND FROM 04S TO 03N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE BASIN...BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR
28N90W. THE RIDGE PROVIDES GENTLE RETURN FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING WHILE THE HIGH PRES MOVES NE TO
E. AN INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT MON MORNING WILL GENERATE
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE NW AND SE BASIN.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL AIR
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA THEN SW OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE IT CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDING INTO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...ALONG WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND
PUERTO RICO AS SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES OVER E CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF A LINE FROM
18N74W TO 15N83W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES COVER THE
BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE
FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. BY TONIGHT...THE PORTION OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE. BY MON NIGHT A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE SW N ATLC AND ITS TAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO BRINGING SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING
BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC STALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE
TAIL OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA
MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 983 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FRONT ANALYZED AS STATIONARY FROM 30N58W SW TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THEN TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE REGION S OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO
75W BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE REMNANTS OF A LOW
PRES CENTER ARE ANALYZED AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM
33N48W TO 25N46W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER EASTERN
BASIN. BY MON NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS TAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BRINGING SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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