[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS BEING EMITTED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF
AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II...AND LOCALLY IN CANARIAS.
NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA AND
THEN CONTINUES INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N12W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N21W TO 0N33W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W AND
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W...ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023
MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE PROVIDES GENTLE NE TO E
WINDS BASIN-WIDE...BECOMING RETURN FLOW EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE
HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES NE TOWARDS N CAROLINA EARLY MON MORNING.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG
SE WINDS IN THE NW AND SE BASIN MON MORNING. OTHERWISE...RIDGING
ALOFT AND DRY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA THEN W
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDING INTO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...ALONG WITH LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 18N74W TO 15N83W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVES OVER E CARIBBEAN WATERS ENHANCING SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
COVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE NE FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. BY SUN NIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL
IN THE SW N ATLC AND ITS TAIL WILL START TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BY MON NIGHT A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS TAIL
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING
SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH SUN
NIGHT AND THE TAIL OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 978 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N59W SW TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERS THE REGION S OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W BEING
SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE REMNANTS OF A LOW PRES CENTER
ARE ANALYZED AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N47W TO
25N43W...SHOWERS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. SURFACE
RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN. BY SUN NIGHT THE
FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SW N ATLC AND ITS TAIL WILL START TO
DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BY MON
NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND ITS TAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO BRINGING MORE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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