[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHERLY GALE OR NEAR GALE IN...AGADIR...
TARFAYA...AND LOCALLY IN CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 10N17W TO 08N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N19W
TO 02N28W 01N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 02S40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
06N SOUTHWARD MOSTLY BETWEEN 16W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.
MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...
PARTS OF FLORIDA...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 24N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
19N102W IN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KVOA.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO AND PORT ISABEL...VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM HAITI TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N TO 19N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.05 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 2000 FEET. A CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT 4500
FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
VICINITY. LA ROMANA...A CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT 1800
FEET...MVFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED.
PUERTO PLATA...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILINGS AT 1600 FEET
AND 8000 FEET ALSO ARE BEING REPORTED.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE CHANGES IN THE WIND DIRECTION...EITHER
FROM THE WEST...THE SOUTHWEST...AND/OR THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE...AND SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT THE SAME CONDITIONS
FOR DAY TWO...AND MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N66W TO
24N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N71W TO CUBA NEAR
22N80W...AND 22N85W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 22N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N61W 30N57W...BEYOND 32N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W...IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.29 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N35W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 19N36W AND TO 05N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG
39W/40W FROM 21N TO 26N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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