[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS BEING EMITTED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF
AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II...AS WELL AS IN CANARIAS.
NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING
WINDS/SEAS. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY EARLY TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N
BETWEEN 59W-65W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 12-17 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO 00N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS SW OVER THE
GULF WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BASIN IS SUPPORTING A FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS
E CUBA REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 21N79W TO 19N85W. AN
AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS MAINLY W OF 75W SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND HISPANIOLA. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC. THIS NEW
BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE E WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVES E WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 26N79W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 21N76W. A
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY BETWEEN 56W-70W. TO THE E...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 23N56W TO 19N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N29W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP IN THE W ATLANTIC AND
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION AND GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS VICINITY
MAINLY N OF 30N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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