[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 16N14W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-
34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 2N18W TO 3N26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND/E CANADA INTO THE NW
ATLC SUPPORTING AT 03/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE IT CROSSES S/CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR BOCA RATON AND INTO THE GULF BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND NAPLES
26N83W TO 26N90W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 30N GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF 26N. PATCHES OF FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS N OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER W
VIRGINIA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE GULF BY FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SAT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA/E PANAMA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W-85W INCLUDING CENTRAL CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 16N E OF 83W. FRESH NE
TO E TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...PULSING TO STRONG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
MODERATE SAT INTO SUN.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S
OF 33N WITH THE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO 33N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND/E CANADA INTO THE NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 29N70W TO 27N76W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANDS POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM
29N69W TO 24N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL IS SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W TO A NEWLY
DEVELOPED WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W WITH A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N41W 20N47W 17N55W TO 18N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N60W ALONG 26N71W TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOSTLY N OF AREA WITH SOUTHERN TIP
AT 31N59W BY EARLY FRI. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE CONUS BY TONIGHT AND WILL REACH
FROM NEAR 32N76W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA FRI AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES FROM NEAR 32N63W TO 25N72W SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net