[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N25W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N14W TO 4N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN BOCA RATON AND NAPLES INTO THE
GULF ALONG 26N84W TO 27N93W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 30N GIVING THE
GULF WATERS SW TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
SE GULF EARLY THU. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N
GULF THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE GULF BY FRI NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
SAT THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-
85W INCLUDING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME
FRESH WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE NE
TRADE WINDS SUN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S
OF 30N WITH THE AXIS FROM ACROSS E CUBA TO 30N72W. AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 28N75W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR BOCA RATON. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W ALONG
24N53W 17N57W TO 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR 32N68W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH OVERNIGHT THEN
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 25N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA
THU MORNING AND N OF AREA WITH SOUTHERN TIP AT 31N59W BY THU
NIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SURFACE
TROUGH BY THU MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE CONUS THU NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM
NEAR 32N76W TO VERO BEACH FRI AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM
NEAR 32N63W TO 25N72W SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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