[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.




...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N14W AND 06N14W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N14W TO 05N15W TO 05N17W AND 01N25W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 03S33W AND 03S36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 09W AND
10W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W TO 29N70W TO 27N77W IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 27N77W...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 26N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO 26N91W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 25N68W
20N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.60 IN BERMUDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVAF AND KGBK.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KXIH...KGLS...
KHHV...KEMK...KGUL...KEHC...KVQT...KSPR...KGRY...KMDJ...
KVKY...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO...IN ROBSTOWN...FROM VICTORIA TO PORT
LAVACA TO PALACIOS...TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
NORTHWARD...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...IFR IN THE
LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS AND IN GALLIANO...BATON ROUGE...AT THE
HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...DRIZZLE IS BEING OBSERVED IN GULF SHORES.
FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.68 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N. THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 300 NM TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM
THE...NORTHWEST-TO-WEST AT FIRST...AND THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM CUBA...
SOUTHEASTWARD...TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. NORTH-TO-
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A
SEPARATE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO...BRINGING BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THAT CENTER
WILL DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A CONTINUED RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND AT FIRST...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N. THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
66W AND 73W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N29W AND 23N34W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
24N42W AND 17N39W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W...TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N43W...TO 27N41W 21N44W 19N51W AND 16N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 24N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
18N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 19N39W
TO 19N44W 21N47W 18N51W 14N58W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N19W 25N21W 26N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W
26N33W TO 14N46W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N55W...TO
26N62W...TOWARD THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...THE THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF AGADIR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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