[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
726 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 03N46W to 10N45W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave is embedded within a poleward surge of moisture as seen
in the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery between 42W-50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 41W-48W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N56W to 11N56W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave is noted on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge
anchored near 17N53W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-
11N between 52W-60W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N85W to 19N85W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 80W-90W and
remains beneath the influence of an upper level anticyclone
anchored over the NW Caribbean Sea near 17N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-23N between 79W-91W...including portions
of Central America...the Yucatan peninsula...and western Cuba.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
07N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N29W to 05N36W to 03N42W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 08N-11N between 13W-16W...and from 07N-09N between 20W-
25W. Outside of convection associated with tropical waves...
widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 34W-
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Easterly upper level flow prevails over the basin this evening
between an upper level anticyclone centered over northeast
Louisiana near 33N92W and an upper level low centered over the SW
Gulf near 20N95W. The upper level low supports a weak surface
trough analyzed from 23N96W to southern Mexico near 18N93W and a
few isolated showers and tstms occurring in the vicinity of
22N95W. On the easterly periphery of the low...middle to upper
level diffluence is maximized generating widely scattered showers
and tstms S of 24N between 81W-90W...including the adjacent waters
of western Cuba and much of the Yucatan peninsula this evening.
Otherwise...the upper level anticyclone supports a 1022 mb high
centered in the NE Gulf waters near 29N84W with axis extending
along 29N/30N to the SE Texas coast. With the ridge remaining
anchored across the NE Gulf through Sunday...gentle to moderate
E-SE winds are expected to persist.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The primary focus for the basin this evening is a tropical wave
extending along 85W in the NW Caribbean and across Honduras and
Nicaragua. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring W of 79W and
is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall across Central
America and the Yucatan peninsula through Friday as the tropical
wave moves W-NW. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of relatively dry northerly flow aloft E of 77W. At the surface...
fresh to strong trades continue with only isolated showers and
tstms noted in the vicinity of the Mona Passage and portions of
Hispaniola this evening. Little change is expected for the eastern
Caribbean the next few days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Low-level moisture and daytime heating are generating isolated
showers and tstms this evening across the island. This moisture
stretches E-SE to south of Puerto Rico with improving conditions
noted E of 65W. Given peak daytime heating and instability...
similar convective activity is expected on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough axis extends from 32N67W SW to over the NW
Bahamas near 26N78W. While the frontal boundary associated with
the trough dissipated...a remnant surface trough remains analyzed
from 23N79W to 29N76W. Low-level moisture convergence east of the
surface trough and middle to upper level diffluence east of the
trough axis is generating a large area of isolated showers from
23N-32N between 58W-76W. Most of this area lies south of a ridge
axis extending along 30N from 55W west to a 1022 mb high centered
in the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. Farther east...the central
Atlc is under the influence of this ridging as well with mainly
moderate to fresh trades prevailing. Finally...a broad middle to
upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery N of 24N E of
35W. The troughing supports a weakening frontal boundary extending
from 32N26W to 27N30W to 27N38W to 31N44W. Isolated showers are
possible within 90 nm either side of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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