[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 11N50W
to 4N46W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-10N between
44W-54W.

Tropical wave moving over South America extends along 58W/59W
south of 10N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 86W/87W from
20N to over Central America moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough
noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are south of 18N west of 84W to inland over Central
America and the Yucatan peninsula.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W along 9N22W to 7N28W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 5N38W 3N44W to inland over South America
near 2N50W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 6N-10N between 14W-26W and within 90 nm
north of the ITCZ between 44W-47W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are within 180 nm north of the iTCZ between
38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over the west Atlantic near 30N78W
with a ridge axis extending west across Georgia and northeast
Florida to central Texas. A cutoff upper low is over the
southwest Gulf near 21N96W covering the Gulf south of 27N west
of 89W. The upper low coupled with a diurnal surface trough
along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula are generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 23N
between 88W-93W. A seabreeze surface trough has moved into the
far east Gulf with isolated showers within 60 nm along the coast
of Florida between Fort Myers and Cedar Key. A surface ridge
covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across
northeast Florida to a 1020 mb high near 29N84W then to the
central Texas coast. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf
clear skies and tranquil conditions tonight. Surface ridge will
persist through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge covers the Caribbean west of 66W and is anchored
just west of Jamaica near 19N80W. Difflunce aloft between this
upper ridge and the upper low over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
is enhancing the activity associated with the tropical wave and
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
a large area west of a line from Cuba near 20N77W to Panama near
9N82W. An upper trough over the central Atlantic covers the
remainder of the east Caribbean. A second area of difflunce
aloft is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms north of
17N to over Hispaniola between the Mona Passage and the Windward
Passage. Tropical wave will move across the remainder of the
northwest Caribbean through Thursday. Another tropical wave will
move into the southeast Caribbean late Thursday/early Friday.
Fresh to strong trade winds will expand westward through
Thursday, then begin to decrease in coverage on Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An area of difflunce aloft is generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the island tonight including the Mona and
Windward Passages. Lingering moisture and daytime heating could
still produce isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday afternoons.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge is anchored over the west Atlantic near 30N78W
with a ridge axis extending west across Georgia and northeast
Florida to over the Gulf of Mexico and covers the west Atlantic
north 25N west of 69W. A remnant surface trough extends from
28N77W across the north Bahama Islands to 24N79W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 25N to the
coast of Cuba between 74W-80W. A cutoff upper low has become
established over the central Atlantic near 26N54W covering the
area from 12N-32N between 44W-66W with isolated showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms within 120/150 nm of line from
the Turks and Caicos near 21N72W to 31N57W. A second remnant
surface trough is in the east Atlantic extending from 31N47W
along 27N40W to 26N30W. The remainder of the Atlantic east of
70W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high
about 550 nm west of the Azores with a narrow surface ridge axis
extending along 30N west of 70W across Georgia and northeast
florida into the Gulf of mexico. The west Atlantic surface
trough will move west across the remainder of the Bahama Islands
overnight, then weaken as it crosses Florida Thursday. The west
Atlantic surface ridge will weaken slightly this weekend with
little change in position through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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