[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving across the central Atlantic with axis that
extends from 10N43W to 03N43W, moving W near 10-15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the
wave enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ from 05N-09N between
42W- 45W.

Another tropical wave in over the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 10N54W to 04N55W, moving W at 10-15 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave is embedded within a surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the
wave N of 07N between 47W-55W.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N83W to 09N83W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave is been supported by an upper-level low
centered over the Bay of Campeche. With this, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed along and in the
vicinity of the wave S of 20N 79W-85W affecting portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W to 06N29W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 06N42W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N44W
to 07N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between
34W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb
centered over northern Florida near 30N83W. To the SW, an upper-
level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. With
this, isolated moderate convection is observed S of 23N between
90W-97W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow over the area. Expect in 24 hours for the
upper-level low to move W. Surface ridging will prevail across the
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean.
Please refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer data
depicts a moderate to fresh easterly flow across the basin with
fresh to strong winds S of 15N between 73W-77W. These winds are
transporting low-level moisture which is generating isolated
convection across the NE portion of the basin mainly N of 16N
affecting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Expect for the tropical wave
to continue moving W with convection during the next 24 hours.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-level moisture and daytime heating will produce isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the island.
Similar activity is expected during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the W Atlantic from 29N73W to
23N77W. Scattered moderate convection is observed with this trough
between 74W-78W. To the E, two tropical waves were analyzed across
the Tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for
details. A cold front extends over the NE Atlantic from 30N41W to
28N34W to 30N28W. No significant convection is related to this
feature. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a stationary 1034 mb centered near 39N41W.
Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next
24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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