[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave moving into the west Tropical Atlantic extends
along 42W from 4N-10N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 7N-10N between 40W-43W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 53W
south of 10N to inland over South America moving west near 10 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 7N-10N
between 50W-56W.

Tropical wave is in the Caribbean extending along 82W from 19N
to over Panama moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models
and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered strong
convection is from 12N-15N between 80W-83W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 10N-
19N between 79W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W along 10N21W to 5N29W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to east of the first tropical wave near 5N40W,
resumes west of the wave near 5N43W to east of the next tropical
wave near 6N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 8N-10N between 43W-50W and from 8N-10N
between 56W-61W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 4N-8N between 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over northeast Texas with a ridge
axis extending east across Georgia and northeast Florida into
the far west Atlantic. A cutoff upper low is over the southwest
Gulf near 20N92W covering the Gulf south of 25N east of 95W and
a surface trough that extends from 23N92W to over south Mexico
near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 45 nm along the coast of Mexico between 94W-97W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 75 nm of a line from the
east Gulf near 25N82W to 22N94W. Composite radar indicates
isolated showers are streaming north over the west Gulf north of
22N west of 94W. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending
from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1021 mb
high near 30N86W then to the central Texas coast. Surface ridge
will persist through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge anchored near the ABC Islands covers the
Caribbean this morning. Difflunce aloft over the west Caribbean
is enhancing the activity associated with the tropical wave and
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
a large area west of 77W to over Central America. The easterly
trade winds are generating isolated showers across the northeast
Caribbean north of 16N east of 71W to the Leeward Islands.
Tropical wave will move across the west Caribbean through
tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage
across the east and central Caribbean through tonight, then
begin to decrease in coverage on Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are mostly clear across the island this morning with some
possible isolated showers over the far eastern portion of the
Dominican Republic. Lingering moisture and daytime heating could
still produce isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and again on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge extends across the southeast CONUS into the west
Atlantic over Georgia and northeast Florida to 30N76W. A surface
ridge extends through 32N72W across northeast Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough extends across the remainder of
the west Atlantic through 32N66W to 27N78W with a surface trough
that extends from 28N72W across the Bahamas near 24N76W to
22N77W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
90/120 nm of the surface trough east of the Bahamas and and from
over the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba between 74W-80W. The
remainder of the Atlantic east of 70W is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high near 35N49W. The west Atlantic
surface trough will move west across the remainder of the Bahama
Islands through tonight, then weaken as it approaches Florida
early on Friday. The west Atlantic surface ridge will change
little through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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