[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the West tropical Atlc with axis near 45W
from 05N-14N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 40W and 50W
according to the GFS model and low values of deep layer wind
shear. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is within a moderate
moist environment from surface to 850 mb that along with an upper
level diffluent environment support scattered showers from 08N-12N
between 41W-48W and 02N-05N between 40W-43W. Isolated showers are
elsewhere in the vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the West tropical Atlc with axis near 57W
from 06N-15N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W and 63W
according to the GFS model. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is
within a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb,
however it is in a region of strong deep layer wind shear that in
part inhibits convection at the time.

A tropical wave is off the western Yucatan Peninsula with axis
near 91W, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a very sharp 700 mb trough, a middle level low and
divergence at the upper levels. The former described environment
along with abundant moisture in the region support scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms inland the Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize
and isolated showers within 90 nm off the Peninsula coast.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
07N20W to 06N28W where the ITCZ axis begins and then continues to
07N36W to 02N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave near 45W, a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 03N-07N between 22W-26W possibly associated with a
tropical wave.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature across the basin continue to be a tropical wave
that is producing disorganized thunderstorms and cloudiness over
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern Guatemala, and
adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface
low pressure system could form over the southern Yucatan peninsula
during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few
days, emerging over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by Sunday. Refer to the tropical waves section for more
details. The remainder basin is dominated by surface ridging
extending across the basin from the SW N Atlc waters. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are in the NE Gulf N of 28N E of 90W
associated with a squall line N of the area. Scattered showers
are in the Yucatan Channel and northern Cuba coastal waters.
Otherwise, gentle variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to
moderate flow is to the W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula continue to support
scattered to isolated showers across the NW Caribbean and the
Yucatan Channel. A middle level low over the Yucatan Peninsula and
a ridge centered over Cuba generates diffluence in the region to
support scattered showers along Cuba and adjacent waters. An upper
level low and associated trough cover the central and eastern
basin, however water vapor SSMI TPW and CIRA LPW imagery show
mainly dry air in this region, which is favoring fair weather.
Otherwise, a tight gradient between low pres in the SW basin and
high pres in the N-NE Caribbean prevails, thus supporting NE to E
strong to near gale-force winds from 11N-13N between 74W-77W.
Fresh to strong winds are S of 19N W of 84.5W, including the Gulf
of Honduras. A new tropical wave will move into the eastern region
by late Sat with possible showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level troughing and an upper level low are over the the
Island, however Water Vapor and CIRA LPW imagery show
mainly dry air in this region, which is favoring fair weather.
Similar conditions are expected during the remainder weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle to upper level troughing continues along the far W Atlc
waters with base reaching near the central Bahamas. Moderate
moisture in this region along with lifting provided by the upper
trough support scattered showers and isolated tstms W of 70W,
except for the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters. Otherwise,
besides the tropical waves discussed above, broad surface high
pressure anchored near the Azores dominates elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net