[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis from
14N42W to 06N45W, moving W at 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing noted in global
model fields between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate convection
prevails south of 11N between 42W-45W.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N55W to 06N56W, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing between 50W-60W and is embedded in the
leading edge of a surge of deep moisture. No significant
convection is observed within this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
extending from 22N89W to 13N91W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. The wave
coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and the NW
Caribbean Sea between 85W-92W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 14N-23N between 85W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N29W, where the ITCZ axis begins and extends to 08N43W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N46W to 08N55W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough east of 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave that is
generating scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan
Peninsula and adjacent waters. Please refer to the section above
for more details. A surface ridge axis extends from the western
Atlantic, across south Florida to a 1017 mb high centered near
20N93W. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails
across the basin. A diurnal surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche extending from 22N94W to 19N94W. This trough is moving
westward with no deep convection. Over the next 24 hours,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Florida peninsula
affecting the eastern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase over the southwestern Gulf as the tropical wave
moves westward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing convection
over the far west Caribbean mainly west of 85W. The pressure
gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela supports fresh to
strong trades and seas to 12 feet south of 15N between 69W and
78W. Moderate trades cover the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect
little change over the next 24 hours, except for an increase in
showers over the Leeward Islands over the weekend as a tropical
wave approaches the area from the east.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair conditions prevail over the island at this time. Similar
conditions are forecast across the area through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough over the southeastern United States
supports clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic north of 24N and west of 70W. High pressure dominates
the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Two tropical waves
are over the tropical central Atlantic. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours,
expect convection to continue across the western Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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