[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the East tropical Atlc with axis near 18W
from 03N-13N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 07W and 30W
according to the GFS model and low values of deep layer wind
shear. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is within a moderate
moist environment from surface to 850 mb that along with a middle
to upper level diffluent environment support scattered to isolated showers
from 03N-14N E of 22W.

A tropical wave is in the West tropical Atlc with axis near 47W
from 04N-13N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 40W and 52W
according to the GFS model and low values of deep layer wind
shear S of 12N. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is within a
moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb that along with
an upper level diffluent environment support scattered to isolated showers
from 04N-12N between 40W-52W.

A tropical wave is in the West tropical Atlc with axis near 58W S
of 15N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with 700 mb troughing between 54W and 62W according to
the GFS model. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is within a
moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb, however it is
in a region of strong deep layer wind shear that in part inhibits
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is off the western Yucatan Peninsula with axis
near 91W, moving W at 10-15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a very sharp 700 mb trough and a middle level low.
The former described environment along with moderate moisture in
the region support scattered to isolated showers S of 23N between
85W-96W, except for heavy showers and isolated tstms from 15N-21N
between 84W-89W, including the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N20W to 06N28W where the ITCZ axis begins and then continues to
06N38W to 0N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, a cluster of moderate convection is from 03N-07N
between 24W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature across the basin continue to be a tropical wave
that is producing disorganized thunderstorms and cloudiness over
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern Guatemala, and
adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface
low pressure system could form over the southern Yucatan peninsula
during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few
days, emerging over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by Sunday. Refer to the tropical waves section for more
details. The remainder basin is dominated by weak surface ridging
extending across the basin from the SW N Atlc waters. Scattered showers
and tstms are in the E Gulf from 25N-27N E of 90W. Otherwise,
gentle variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to moderate flow
is to the W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula continue to support
scattered showers and isolated tstms across the NW Caribbean W of
84W and isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel. A middle level
low over the Yucatan Peninsula and a ridge centered over Cuba
generates diffluence in the region to support isolated showers
along Cuba and adjacent waters. An upper level low and associated
trough cover the central and eastern basin, however water vapor
SSMI TPW and CIRA LPW imagery show mainly dry air in this region,
which is favoring fair weather. Otherwise, a tight gradient
between low pres in the SW basin and high pres in the N-NE
Caribbean prevails, thus supporting NE to E strong to near gale-
force winds from 11N- 13N between 74W-77W. Fresh to strong winds
are S of 18N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras. A new
tropical wave will move into the eastern region by late today with
possible showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level troughing and an upper level low are over the the
Island, however Water Vapor and CIRA LPW imagery show
mainly dry air in this region, which is favoring fair weather.
Similar conditions are expected during the remainder weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle to upper level troughing continues along the far W Atlc
waters with base reaching near the central Bahamas. Moderate
moisture in this region along with lifting provided by the upper
trough support scattered showers and isolated tstms between 62W-
72W N of 25N. Otherwise, besides the tropical waves discussed
above, broad surface high pressure anchored NE of the Azores
dominates elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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