[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa and eastern
Atlantic with axis from 15N15W to 07N16W, moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave is in an area of low-level moisture as noted on SSMI
composite TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is behind
the wave's axis from 10N-14N.

A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 12N29W to 02N30W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a moist environment as noted by SSMI composite TPW
imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb.
Isolated showers are within 150 nm to the east of the wave's
axis.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 08N44W to 00N45W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low
amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist
environment. Isolated showers are within 100 nm on either side
of the wave axis mainly across the northern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near
17N65W to 08N65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. A moist environment is
indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery around this wave.
Scattered showers are over the southern portion of the wave
affecting Venezuela.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 19N16W to
09N28W then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N31W to
06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 04N41W. Beside the
convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate
convection is from 03N-10N between 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf near 27N88W.
With this, a light to gentle anticyclonic surface flow prevails
across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft across the Ark-La-Tex
region is supporting an area of moderate convection that is
moving south approaching the northern Gulf waters. To the
southwest, a surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche
from 22N92W to 19N93W with isolated convection. Expect a similar
weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
see the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft and
the proximity of a surface trough currently located over the
Bahamas, are supporting isolated convection across the northwest
Caribbean affecting portions of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with convection. An increase in tropical
moisture will continue across the northwest Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is observed across the island induced by
upper-level diffluence. Similar activity will continue during
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
near 28N75W. South of this feature, a surface trough extends
across the Bahamas from 25N80W to 26N69W. A stationary front
extends from that point to 32N47W. Isolated convection is
observed in the vicinity of these boundaries affecting the
waters west of 48W. A broad surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near
35N26W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin.
Please see the section above for details. Expect for the surface
high to dissipate in the western Atlantic. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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