[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis from
18N14W to 07N15W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an area
of low-level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave's axis from 10N-
14N between 11W-14W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 12N28W to 02N28W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a moist environment as noted by SSMI composite TPW
imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm mainly east of the wave's
axis.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 08N42W to 00N44W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low
amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist
environment. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either side of
the wave axis mainly across the northern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near
18N44W to 07N65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. A moist environment is
indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered showers are
over the southern portion of the wave affecting Venezuela.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 03N43W then resumes west
of a tropical wave from 02N45W to 01N50W. Beside the convection
associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection
is from 03N-11N between 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf near 28N89W.
With this, a light to gentle anticyclonic surface flow prevails
across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft across the Ark-La-Tex
region is supporting an area of moderate convection that is
moving south approaching the northern Gulf waters. To the
southwest, a surface trough extends across the Yucatan peninsula
and slightly moving west entering the Bay of Campeche with
convection. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
see the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft and
the proximity of a surface trough currently located over the
Bahamas, are supporting isolated convection across the northwest
Caribbean affecting portions of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with convection. An increase in tropical
moisture will continue across the northwest Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is observed across the island induced by
upper-level diffluence. Similar activity will continue during
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
near 28N74W. South of this feature, a surface trough extends
across the Bahamas from 24N77W to 24N68W. A stationary front
extends from that point to 32N48W. Isolated convection is
observed in the vicinity of these boundaries affecting the
waters west of 62W. A broad surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
36N26W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin.
Please see the section above for details. Expect for the surface
high to dissipate in the western Atlantic. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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