[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern tropical Atlc with axis
near 16W from 06N-16N, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show
an abundant moderate to high moist environment from surface to 850
mb in the vicinity of the wave that along with divergence aloft
support scattered heavy showers and tstms from 03N-11N E of 17W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis near
32W from 03N-13N, moving W at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show mainly
a dry environment from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the
wave that is limiting the convection to isolated showers within 60
nm either side of its axis.

A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis near
46W, moving W at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show mainly a dry
environment from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the wave. No
convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 68W,
moving W at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show a moderate moist environment
from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the wave. However,
strong deep layer wind shear in this region of the basin hinders the
convection at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
06N21W to 06N30W. The ITCZ begins near 07N34W to 05N44W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N48W and continues to 06N57W.
Beside the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered showers are from 04N-08N W of 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface high pressure continues to dominate across the Gulf
waters being anchored by a center of 1018 mb near 23N86W. This
feature provides the entire basin with gentle variable wind.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are in the northern basin N
of 26N between 85W and 95W associated with a boundary outflow N of
the area. No major changes are expected the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 68W and
supporting showers and tstms mainly across western Puerto Rico.
For further information see the waves section above. A diffluent
environment aloft prevails over the Great Bahama Bank, Cuba and
portions of Hispaniola, which along with shallow moisture support
scattered showers and isolated tstms along Cuba and southern
adjacent waters to 18N. Similar convection also continues within
60 nm off the coast of Costa Rica and northern Panama being
supported by the EPAC monsoon trough. High pressure over the
eastern basin and low pressure associated with the wave and a
broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean tightens the
gradient of pressure to support fresh to strong winds in the
South-central waters S of 15N between 65W and 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to isolated showers prevails across the island being
supported by a diffluent environment aloft over the Great Bahama
Bank, Cuba and portions of Hispaniola. Moisture N of the area
associated with the remnants of a former front and moisture
associated with a tropical wave currently near 68W will continue
to support showers in the Island through Tue morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Heavy showers and tstms are occurring between the eastern edge of
an upper trough with base near 24N and the eastern periphery of a
ridge that cover great portions of the Caribbean. The diffluent
environment generated by these upper level features along with
shallow moisture in the vicinity of a surface trough extending
from 29N61W to 26N70W to 22N77W support the aforementioned
convection. East of the surface trough a dissipating stationary
front continues to weaken along 30N49W to 29N60W. Scattered to
isolated showers are N of 28N between 54W and 60W. The Azores high
dominates the remainder non-tropical Atlc, which is being anchored
by a 1030 mb high center near 35N27W. Showers associated with the
surface trough will continue in the SW Atlc through early Wed
morning. No major changes expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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