[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The last advisory for Post Tropical Cyclone Colin was written at
07/2100 utc.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
31W/32W from 3N-10N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
68W/69W from 10N-19N moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on
GFS model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is beneath the
diffluent environment between an upper trough/ridge masking the
inverted trough on satellite imagery. No associated deep
convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 9N13W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues
to east of the tropical wave near 4N29W then resumes west of the
wave near 7N34W along 6N49W to 9N56W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm north
and 150 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 18W to inland
over west Africa, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-
32W, within 120/150 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W-40W, and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-43W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are within 120/150 nm north of the
ITCZ between 18W-23W and between 45W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the northeast CONUS into the
northwest Atlantic extending a narrower upper trough across
Texas and most of Mexico. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba
extends through the Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic is
giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface trough extends
from the remnants of Colin through the west Atlantic across
Florida between Melbourne and Tampa Bay along 26N88W to 24N92W.
A second surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf near
25N82W through the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W into the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are southeast of a line from Fort Myers, Florida
to the Yucatan near 21N88W including west Cuba and south
Florida. Isolated showers are possible from 24N-29N between 86W-
92W and and within 45 nm of 27N between 95W and the Texas coast.
Weak pressure pattern across the basin will allow for gentle to
moderate winds and low seas across the area through the end of
the week. The surface trough over the southeast Gulf will lift
northward to the far northeast Gulf through early Saturday. A
weak high pressure will settle over the central Gulf by the end
of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the
the west Atlantic and the Caribbean west of 80W. A surface
trough extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the
Yucatan Channel near 22N85W into the Gulf of Honduras to the
coast of Honduras near 16N86W. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are west of a line from Cuba near 22N80W
to Honduras near 16N84W. A cutoff elongated upper low is
centered south of Haiti near 16N74W extending a trough axis
north to 26N67W and south to Panama near 9N78W. A second upper
ridge is anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder
of the east Caribbean east of 68W. The diffluent environment
between these upper features is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of line from Hispaniola near 18N71W
to Panama near 9N77W. Fresh to occasionally strong east winds
are expected near the coast of Colombia Wednesday night through
Saturday. The tropical wave will be in the central Caribbean by
Wednesday morning and through the western Caribbean by Thursday
through Friday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently skies are cleared across most the island tonight with
the exception of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms over
eastern Dominican Republic. The cutoff upper low over Haiti will
shift west east of the island through by early Thursday.
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain across the
Dominican Republic through Wednesday afternoon then spread
across the remainder of the island through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends through the
Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic covering the area
south of 27N east of 77W. A surface trough extends from the
remnants of Colin into the west Atlantic through 32N73W to
across Florida near Melbourne continuing into the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are
southeast of the surface trough to a line from Cuba near 22N77W
to beyond 32N67W. A cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean
extends a trough axis north across Haiti to 26N67W. An upper
trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front
that enters the area near 32N26W to 31N30W where it becomes
stationary to a weak 1015 mb low near 29N36W then continues as a
cold front along 25N40W to 26N47W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm southeast of the cold fronts and within 90 nm north of the
stationary front. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high in the east Atlantic
near 25N27W and a second 1021 mb high the central Atlantic near
24N56W. The surface trough in the west Atlantic will move slowly
southeast through Thursday night as a cold front moves across
the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. High pressure
will then settle over the west/central Atlantic Friday, and
shift to the northeast by Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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