[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 32W
from 3N-10N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a
weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
68W/69W from 7N-19N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is becoming elongated due
to upper level features. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 16N-22N between 64W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 7N16W to 6N22W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to east of the tropical wave near 5N30W then
resumes west of the wave near 5N35W along 6N48W to South America
near 7N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 4N-10N between 13W-17W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are within 90/120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 21W-40W, within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-
35W, and within 120/150 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-43W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120/150 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 17W-21W, within 60 nm of the
ITCZ between 43W-49W, and south of 9N to the coast of South
America between 56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the northeast CONUS into the
northwest Atlantic extending a narrower upper trough across
Texas and most of Mexico. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba
extends over the Straits of Florida into the far southwest
Atlantic is giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface
trough extends from the remnants of Colin through the west
Atlantic across Florida between Cape Canaveral and south Tampa
Bay along 27N85W to 24N91W. A second surface trough extends from
the southeast Gulf near 24N84W through the Yucatan Channel near
21N86W into the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the northern
surface trough east of 90w including west Cuba, the Yucatan and
the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from 25N-28N west of 90W to the coast of Texas. Isolated
showers are possible from 24N-29N between 86W-90W. Weak pressure
pattern across the basin will prevail through the weekend. The
surface trough over the southeast Gulf will lift northward
through Friday then shift east of the area Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the
the southwest Atlantic and covers the Caribbean west of 80W. A
surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through
the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the Gulf of Honduras to the
coast of Honduras near 16N86W. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are west of a line from Cuba near 22N80W
to Honduras near 15N84W. A cutoff elongated upper low is
centered south of Haiti near 16N75W extending a trough axis
north to 28N67W and south to Panama near 9N79W. A second upper
ridge is anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder
of the east Caribbean east of 70W. The diffluent environment
between these upper features is generating scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms between 63W-68W. Fresh to
occasionally strong east winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia through Saturday. The tropical wave will reach the west
Caribbean by Thursday evening then move inland across Central
America this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently skies are cleared across most the island this morning
with the exception of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
over eastern Dominican Republic. The cutoff upper low over Haiti
will shift west of the island through by early Thursday.
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain across the
eastern Dominican Republic through this afternoon then spread
across the remainder of the island through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends through the
Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic covering the area
south of 28N east of 76W. A surface trough extends from the
remnants of Colin into the west Atlantic through 32N70W to
across Florida near Cape Canaveral continuing into the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are
southeast of the surface trough to a line from Cuba near 21N77W
to Bermuda. A cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean
extends a trough axis north across Haiti to 28N67W. An upper
trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front
north of the area then stationary front along 32N26W and 31N31W
to a weak 1015 mb low near 29N34W then continues as a cold front
along 26N36W to 24N41W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
southeast of the cold front and within 90 nm north of the
stationary front. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high in the east Atlantic
near 32N18W and a 1022 mb high the central Atlantic near 26N57W.
The surface trough in the west Atlantic will sag southeastward
through Thursday night as a cold front moves across the northern
waters of the west Atlantic. A surface ridge will then prevail
along 25N through Thursday night then shift east on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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