[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post tropical cyclone Colin is centered near 36.5N 72.2W, or
about 178 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as
of 07/21 UTC. Colin is moving northeast at about 35 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with higher gusts near 60 kt. Please
see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis
along 31W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model
streamlines. Dry air and dust in the northern wave environment
along with strong deep layer wind shear suppress the development
of convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
along 67W, moving west at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines
and a broad surge of moisture is depicted on both the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water and the CIRA Layer Precipitable water imagery.
Even that there is strong deep layer shear in this region of the
Caribbean, a diffluent environment in the middle to upper levels
support scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms E
of 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ begins near 07N17W and
continue to east of a tropical wave near 05N28W. The ITCZ resumes
near 05N32W and then continues to 05N41W to 05N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure continues to dominate the basin after the
passage of current post-tropical cyclone Colin located off the
NE coast of North Carolina. This low pressure is analyzed as a
surface trough that extends across central Florida to 27N83W SW to
25N92W, which support isolated showers and thunderstorms inland.
A second surface trough remains in the SE basin from 25N82W to the
tip of western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras in the Caribbean.
Moisture convergence along with a divergent environment aloft
generated by a high anchored near 20N85W support scattered heavy
showers S of 26N E of 88W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
straits of Florida. Scatterometer data depicts variable gentle winds
basin-wide. No significant changes are expected the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge is anchored over the NW Caribbean near 20N85W
collocated with a surface trough that extends from 25N82W to the
tip of western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Moisture convergence
along with the divergent environment aloft generated by the ridge support
scattered to numerous heavy showers N of 17N W of 81W, including
the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms are inland over SE Yucatan Peninsula, Belize,
portions of Guatemala and Honduras. Scattered showers are in the
eastern basin E of 70W associated due in part to a tropical wave
with axis along 67W. See waves section above for details. Isolated
heavy showers and thunderstorms are over NW Hispaniola. Gentle to
moderate trades dominate the basin E of 80W. Moderate SE flow is
in the NW Caribbean E of the surface trough. The tropical wave is
forecast to be in the central basin Wed near sunrise. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast to develop in the south-central
Caribbean Thu.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level elongated low is over the central Caribbean, which
supports lifting of abundant moist air in the region, thus
resulting in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms over NW
portions of the Island tonight. A tropical wave currently along
67W will move to the central Caribbean by sunrise on Wed, thus
assisting the continuation of showers in the island, especially
during afternoon and evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure and lingering moisture associated with current post-
tropical cyclone Colin off the NE coast of North Carolina support
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms W of 73W. In the central
Atlc, a broad trough aloft continues to support a frontal system
analyzed as stationary from 30N31W to a 1015 mb low near 28N37W.
>From the low, a cold front extends to 25N43W to 26N50W. Isolated
showers are possible in the vicinity of this system. Otherwise,
the remainder basin is being dominated by ridging anchored mainly
by a 1021 mb high near 24N57W. For Colin and tropical waves
information see sections above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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