[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The position agrees
with long-term satellite imagery. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 04N to 06N between 27W and 29W. isolated
moderate elsewhere from 03N to 13N between 23W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The position agrees with long-term
satellite imagery. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 05N to 08N between 39W and 42W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 11N southward between 37W and 47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 11N southward to land between
Colombia and 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N28W 04N39W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 15N southward
between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in the
southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours
has moved inland. It is near 22N101W in Mexico. A diurnal and transient
surface trough is along 92W from 23N southward to land. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W westward in the Gulf of Mexico.
Numerous strong from 20N into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec between 94W
and 96W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends across Bermuda, to 29N81W, across northern
Florida, to 27N93W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 20N97W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...NONE.

IFR...NONE.

MVFR...KBBF, KVQT

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Alice. MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Galliano.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Hattiesburg. MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA:
LIFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: Light rain in the Pensacola
metropolitan area. Rain and thunder in Mary Esther. Light rain in
Valparaiso. Light rain in Apalachicola. MVFR in Perry. Light rain
in Marathon Key.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A weak upper level cyclonic circulation center is just to the
south of the northwestern corner of Cuba. The cyclonic wind flow
encompasses much of the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N northward
from 79W westward.

Upper level SE wind flow covers the southwestern corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Some of that wind flow eventually becomes
anticyclonic as it curves more toward Jamaica and beyond, eastward
and northeastward, into the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The rest of
the SE wind flow moves into Central America. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong in the southwestern corner of the
Caribbean sea, from 13N southward between 79W and the southeastern
corner of Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 07N76W in Colombia,
beyond 09N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Other isolated moderate
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward from 75W westward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.21 in
Bermuda, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is crossing Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 17/0000
UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo: few cumulonimbus
clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS.
Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago: few low level clouds/VFR.
Puerto Plata: few cumulonimbus clouds. VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a
ridge will extend from Belize to northern sections of Colombia
during day one. NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola. An inverted
trough will approach Hispaniola from the east. The NW wind flow
will change to NE wind flow during the second part of day one.
Expect NE to E wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area for day
one. An inverted trough will move across the area during day two.
SE wind flow will move across the area by the end of day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist
of mostly SE wind flow, with NE wind flow at the end of day one.
Day two will start with NE wind flow, followed by an inverted
trough for the rest of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center and trough cover the
Atlantic Ocean from the area that is about 180 NM to the northeast
of Bermuda, to 30N66W, to an inverted trough that is along 29N73W,
toward the southeastern Bahamas. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 20N northward from 60W westward.

A middle level to upper level inverted trough is about 240 NM to
the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, eventually
extending to 30N62W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 20N to 30N between 54W and 60W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 1000 NM to
the west of Morocco. The trough supports a cold front that passes
through 32N30W to 31N33W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the
line that passes through 32N25W 27N40W to 25N55W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends
from a 1031 MB high pressure center that is near 37N43W, across
Bermuda, to 29N81W, across northern Florida, to 27N93W in the Gulf
of Mexico, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near
20N97W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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