[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 02N to 12N between 20W and
30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate south of 08N between 40W and
46W, included in the area of ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 09N to 11N between 76W and
78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N19W. The ITCZ is along 08N23W 09N31W
08N39W, to the northeastern coast of Suriname. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere,
away from the tropical waves, from 13N southward between Africa
and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in the
southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours
has moved inland. It is near 22N100W in Mexico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W westward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 NM of the
northwestern part of Cuba from 22N to 24N.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends across Bermuda, to 29N81W, across
northern Florida, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 19N96W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to Alabama: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: Earlier rain in
the Panama City metropolitan area has ended. Light rain in
Apalachicola.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A weak upper level cyclonic circulation center encompasses the
northwestern corner of Cuba. Middle level to upper level cyclonic
wind flow carries over into the Straits of Florida from the
Atlantic Ocean, along the northern coastal sections of Cuba.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
between 77W and 80W along the southern coast of Cuba.

Upper level SE wind flow covers the southwestern corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Some of that wind flow eventually becomes
anticyclonic as it curves more toward Jamaica and beyond, eastward
and northeastward, into the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The rest of
the SE wind flow moves into Central America.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.21 in
Bermuda, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough passes through 07N75W, to 08N81W in Panama,
beyond southern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong within 30 NM on either side of 10N80W 12N84W at
the coast of southeastern Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is crossing Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 19N between 73W and
74W, in the Canal dE la Gonave.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 16/2300
UTC...scattered towering cumulus clouds/VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 17/0000 UTC: few cumulonimbus
clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo: few low level clouds/VFR. La Romana:
scattered low level clouds/VFR. Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago:
scattered low level clouds/VFR. Puerto Plata: few low level
clouds. VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a
ridge will extend from Belize to northern sections of Colombia
during day one. NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola. An inverted
trough will approach Hispaniola from the east. The NW wind flow
will change to NE wind flow during the second part of day one.
Expect NE to E wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area for day
one. An inverted trough will move across the area during day two.
SE wind flow will move across the area by the end of day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist
of mostly SE wind flow, with NE wind flow at the end of day one.
Day two will start with NE wind flow, followed by an inverted
trough for the rest of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center and trough cover the
Atlantic Ocean from the area that is about 180 NM to the northeast
of Bermuda, to 30N66W, to an inverted trough that is along 29N73W,
toward the southeastern Bahamas. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 20N northward from 60W westward.

A middle level to upper level inverted trough is about 240 NM to
the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, eventually
extending to 30N62W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 20N to 30N between 54W and 60W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 1000 NM to
the west of Morocco. The trough supports a cold front that passes
through 32N30W to 31N33W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the
line that passes through 32N28W 27N40W to 25N55W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends
from a 1031 MB high pressure center that is near 38N44W, across
Bermuda, to 29N81W, across northern Florida, to the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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