[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 17N30W to 03N28W, moving westward at 15 kt. The position
agrees with long-term satellite imagery and model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern portion
of the basin south of 10N between 25W-33W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis from
18N52W to 06N53W, moving westward at 15 kt. The position agrees
with long-term satellite imagery and model guidance. No
significant convection is observed within this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the south-central Caribbean with
axis from 16N77W to 03N79W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 15N between 75W-
82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave near 06N33W to
07N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves in
the vicinity. isolated showers are observed within 100 nm of the
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the
northern Atlantic. To the south, a surface trough extends across
the Bay of campeche with scattered moderate convection. This
feature extends from 22N95W to 19N95W. Isolated showers are
observed across the whole basin induced by the presence of an
upper-level low centered over northeast Mexico. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle winds over the basin. Expect little change
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the south-central Caribbean. Please see
the section above for details. The surface pressure gradient
between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over Colombia
supports fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean
between 67W-77W. Isolated showers prevail across the remainder of
the basin as low-level moisture is moved by the gentle to moderate
trades. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. Isolated convection will
develop in the afternoon on Monday induced by daytime heating and
low-level moisture.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for more details. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
high centered near 38N44W. Expect for the tropical waves to
continue moving west with convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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