[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23W
from 11N-18N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides the 700 mb trough/low as depicted in the global models
and within a surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 49W/50W
from 7N-15N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of deep moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 10N-
12N between 45W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 10N26W to 8N34W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N48W to South America near
7N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
6N-9N between 21W-27W and from the ITCZ to 10N between 38W-42W.
Clusters of similar convection are from 10N-12N between 17W-20W,
6N-8N between 27W-31W, from 3N-5N between 42W-47W, and south of
12N to the coast of South America and the ITCZ between 54W-63W
including the Windward Islands.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of upper lows dominate the north Gulf centered near
28N93W and 26N87W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 24N east of 86W and within 60 nm along
the north Gulf coast between Pensacola, Florida and the
Louisiana/Texas border. An upper ridge anchored in the east
Pacific region extends over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is
enhancing the activity associated with the diurnal surface
trough that extends from 21N93W to to over Mexico near 17N93W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N
west of the surface trough and within 60 nm along the coast of
Mexico from 20N-21N. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across central Florida to east Texas. The surface ridge
will persist into the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will
form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the
southwest Gulf late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge over the south Gulf of Mexico covers the
northwest Caribbean west of 87W. A broad upper low centered near
20N77W and covers the southwest Atlantic and dominates the
remainder of the Caribbean. Clusters of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-20N between 69W-83W,
including Haiti. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near
10N74W then across Panama near 9N80W and Costa Rica near 9N83W
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of
10N between Colombia and Costa Rica. Saharan dust and dry air
remain over the Caribbean leaving the remainder of the area
under clear skies again this morning. The tight pressure
gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower
pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. Winds
will be strongest along the coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean
late Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to
over Haiti and within 60 nm along the south coast of the
Dominican Republic, leaving the remainder of the island under
clear skies. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over the next few days. The tropical wave entering
the Caribbean late Friday could bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the island later in the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic again this morning. A
surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high northeast of the
Azores along 32N34W to a 1023 mb high near 29N46W, then westward
to a weak 1020 mb high near 28N70W, continuing west across
central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will
gradually move north of the area late in the weekend.
Expect fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast of
Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoon and evening hours through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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