[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is analyzed along
22W/23W from 6N-20N moving west near 15 kt over the past 12
hours. Wave precedes the 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and the surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 49W/50W
from 5N-16N moving west-southwest near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
are from 10N-13N between 45W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 10N23W to 9N33W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N41W 7N47W to 8N53W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
south of the monsoon trough to 6N between 20W-27W and within
75/90 nm of a line from 7N50W to 10N57W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 4N-10N between 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of upper lows dominate the north Gulf centered near
27N95W and 25N87W generating isolated showers and thunderstorms
north of 25N east of 90W. An upper ridge anchored in the east
Pacific region extends over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is
enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45
nm along the coast of Mexico south of 20N west of 93W. The
diurnal surface trough has returned tonight and extends from
over the Yucatan near 21N88W into the Bay of Campeche to over
south Mexico near 18N93W. The last visible satellite imagery
showers Saharan dust and dry air over the southwest Gulf,
limiting any shower activity associated with the diurnal surface
trough. Evening showers/thunderstorms that developed inland over
Cuba have moved into the Gulf waters within 60 nm along the
coast of Cuba between 81W-85W. A surface ridge extends from the
west Atlantic across central Florida through a 1019 mb high near
27N86W then continuing to east Texas. The surface ridge will
persist into the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will form
each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest
Gulf late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge over the south Gulf of Mexico covers the
northwest Caribbean west of 84W. A broad upper trough covers the
southwest Atlantic and the remainder of the Caribbean. Clusters
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 15N
between 72W-87W, including Haiti and the south coast of Cuba.
The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W then across
Panama near 9N78W and Costa Rica near 9N83W generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 10N between Colombia
and Costa Rica. Saharan dust and dry air remain over the
Caribbean leaving the remainder of the area under clear skies
again tonight. The tight pressure gradient between the west
Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America
is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the central and
southwest Caribbean into the weekend. A tropical wave will enter
the southeast Caribbean on Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to
over Haiti while skies are clear across the Dominican Republic
tonight. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the next few days. A tropical wave entering the
Caribbean Friday could bring more showers and thunderstorms to
the island late in the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic again tonight. A surface
ridge extends from a 1028 mb high over the Azores along 32N38W
then westward along 26N57W to a weak 1021 mb high near 29N73W
across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface
ridge will gradually move north of the area late in the weekend.
Expect fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast of
Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoon and early evening hours through the
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net