[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the West African coast earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 20N19W to 06N21W and model
guidance indicates it will move W near 20 kt within the next 24
hours. Global model streamlines at 700 mb show the wave is
associated with a low centered near 12N20W and an inverted trough
at 500 mb. Meteosat imagery shows Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave's environment that along with strong deep-layer wind shear
limits the convection to the southern portion of the wave mainly S
of 10N between 16W-26W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 15N46W to 05N48W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough as
depicted in global models guidance and is embedded within shallow
moisture as indicated by CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery.
No significant convection is related to this wave as this time as
Saharan dust and dry air prevail in its environment.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N17W and continues to 08N33W where the ITCZ
begins and continues to the coast of South America near 09N61W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
isolated showers are within 100nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered over the NE Gulf near 29N86W. With this, a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails. An upper-level low centered
over the NE portion of the basin also is supporting scattered
moderate convection N of 26N and E of 90W. Little change is
expected during the next 24 hours. Fresh to strong winds will
develop in the Bay of Campeche the next two days associated with a
diurnal surface trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are observed within 50 nm of the coasts Costa
Rica and Panama associated with the EPAC Monsoon Trough. Fair
weather prevails elsewhere due to strong subsidence and dry air.
Expect for the next tropical wave to enter the E Caribbean by
early Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed across the SW portion of the island
due to diurnal hearting and low level moisture. This activity will
dissipate quickly this evening. Dry weather is expected during the
next 24 hours due to strong subsidence and dry air.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Surface ridging continues to
dominate the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high
centered near 29N76W and a 1027 mb high near 38N28W. A weakness in
the ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough extending from
28N58W to 25N61W. Little change is expected through the next 24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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