[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning...A gale warning continues in effect for
the south-central Caribbean along the coast of Colombia. Gale-
force winds will continue through this afternoon. Please see the
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the West African coast earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 5N19W to 20N17W and model guidance
indicates it will move near 20 kt within the next 24 hours. Global
model streamlines at 700 mb show the wave is associated with a low
centered near 12N20W and an inverted trough at 500 mb. Meteosat
imagery show the wave is engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that
along with strong deep layer wind shear limits the convection to
scattered heavy showers within 90 nm either side of the monsoon
trough east of 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 47W
from 05N-15N, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough as depicted in global
models guidance and is embedded within shallow moisture as
indicated by CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W and continues along 08N23W to 07N30W where
the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N47W to the coast of South
America near 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, isolated showers are S of 12N between 50W and 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pres over the west Atlantic and southeast CONUS
extends a ridge across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, thus
providing gentle to moderate flow. Southeasterly flow advects
moisture from the Caribbean, which along with an upper level low in
the NE basin supports isolated showers and tstms N of 26N E of
90W. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are within 200 nm off the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Vera Cruz. Fresh to strong winds
will develop in the Bay of Campeche the next two days associated
with a diurnal surface trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning continues in effect for the south-central
Caribbean with fresh to strong winds extending to the southwest
basin. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish this afternoon.
See special features for more details. Scattered to isolated
showers are within 60 nm of the coasts Costa Rica and Panama
associated with the EPAC monsoon trough. Otherwise, strong dry air
subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere. Next
tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean Friday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the SW N Atlantic south to the
eastern Dominican Republic. This trough of low pres is carrying
shallow moisture to support isolated showers this afternoon and
early evening. Fair weather is expected to resume early Thu
morning as strong dry air subsidence from aloft persist in the
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging continues to dominate across the basin being
anchored by a 1028 mb center of high pres SW of the Azores and a
1021 mb high in the SW N Atlantic near 28N72W. A weakness in the
ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough from 27N59W to 19N63W
and another surface trough S of 22N along 68W. For tropical waves
information see section above. The surface ridge will persist
through the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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