[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning...A gale warning has gone into effect for
the south-central Caribbean along the coast of Colombia. This
continue through this afternoon. Please see the High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 44W/45W
from 8N-17N with a weak 1013 mb low along the wave near 11N, all
moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough south of 15N as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-12N between 44W-47W.

Tropical wave is inland over the Yucatan along 88W/89W south of
21N to over the east Pacific region moving west near 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a 700 mb trough
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection in the Caribbean basin.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 13N19W to 9N30W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N44W 8N49W to the coast of
South America near 8N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of a line from 7N21W
to inland over Africa near 10N14W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 8N-12N between 47W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cutoff upper low dominates the north Gulf centered near 27N87W
generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
from 26N-30N east of 88W. An upper ridge that covers the
northwest Caribbean extends over the south Gulf of Mexico is
enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75
nm along the coast of Mexico south of 21N west of 95W. A surface
ridge extends from the west Atlantic across north/central
Florida through a 1020 mb high near 28N82W then continuing to
northeast Texas. The surface ridge will persist through Friday.
The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the
Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning
stating again tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over Guatemala covering the northwest
Caribbean and the south Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough extends
from the west-central Atlantic across Hispaniola to the north
coast of Colombia covering the remainder of the Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-18N
between 70W-77W, including east Jamaica. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia near 10N75W along 10N79W then across
Panama and Costa Rica near 9N83W and is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms southwest of a line from
Colombia near 9N76W to Nicaragua near 12N84W. Saharan dust and
dry air are seen on the last visible satellite imagery, leaving
the Caribbean east of 80W under clear skies again this morning.
The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface
ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Winds
have increased to near gale force with frequently gusts to gale
force along the northwest coast of Colombia till early this
afternoon. These near gale force winds will return tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are clear across the island this morning. Afternoon or
evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next
few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge over the Florida peninsula is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm along
the coast of Florida between 25N-29N. An upper trough extends
across the central and west Atlantic into the Caribbean
supporting a surface trough that extends from 28N56W to 23N63W
with isolated showers possible within 75 nm of the surface
trough. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Atlantic again
this morning. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic west of
the above surface trough and anchored by a 1021 mb high near
27N71W and extending west into the Gulf of Mexico. A second
broad surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic east of the
above surface trough anchored by a 1027 mb high in the northeast
Atlantic near 34N32W and a ridge axis extending to 24N57W. This
surface ridge will persist through the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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