[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic has an axis that
extends from near 18N25W to 09N25W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb
trough as indicated in model fields and is accompanied by a
modest surge in moisture. Scattered moderate convection is south
of 10N between 21W and 28W. The convection may also be associated
with the monsoon trough in the area.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic has an axis that
extends from near 15N51W to 07N52W, moving westward at around 15
kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb
troughing and is near the leading edge of a surge of deep
moisture. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between
49W and 53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 17N22W to 08N36W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 08N45W to South America near
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N east of
21W, and from 05N to 10N between 21W and 32W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N to 12N between 40W and 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida,
through a 1019 mb high centered near 28N88W, and westward to the
northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle winds cover the northeast Gulf.
Mainly moderate easterly winds cover the southern Gulf. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds cover the northwest Gulf. A small area of
fresh winds accompany a diurnal thermal trough over the southwest
Gulf from 22N94W to 18N95W. Isolated moderate convection is within
210 nm west of the trough axis. An upper low is centered near
28N88W and supports scattered showers and thunderstorms northeast
of a line from 30n93W to 23N84W. Little change is forecast with
regards to winds over the next 24 hours. The upper low will
support showers and thunderstorms mainly over the central and
eastern Gulf through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures
over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trade winds over the
south central Caribbean. Mainly moderate trades cover the
remainder of the Caribbean. An upper low currently over central
Cuba supports isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection are over the southwest Caribbean south of 10N and over
the southeast Caribbean south of 13N east of 70W, and are
primarily being enhanced by the monsoon trough/ITCZ respectively.
Over the next 24 hours winds will pulse to fresh to strong over
the south central Caribbean overnight tonight. The upper low will
move westward with isolated to scattered thunderstorms continuing
over the northwest Caribbean. A tropical wave will enter the east
Caribbean late Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Moderate moisture in place over the island combined with upper
level diffluence over the region due to an upper low over Cuba
supports scattered thunderstorms over the area today. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to continue through Friday with a gradual
decrease in coverage as the upper low moves away from the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Climatologically persistent ridging dominates the majority of our
Atlantic area of discussion, anchored by a a 1021 mb high centered
near 28N72W and a 1024 mb high centered near 29N48W. An upper low over
central Cuba supports scattered thunderstorms from central Florida
to the central Bahamas and southward to the Greater Antilles.
Elsewhere, two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.
Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. A cold front may
emerge over our northwestern waters Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net