[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds are expected to develop along the coast of
Colombia tonight through Monday morning as the pressure gradient
tightens between the W Atlantic surface ridge and the lower
pressure over South America. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends its axis
from 14N24W to 07N25W, moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past 24
hours. This wave coincides with a 700 mb trough that extends
southwest to northeast as seen on the global models, and it is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted
at this time due to Saharan dust present in the environment of the
wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 18N48W to a 1015 mb low near 12N49W to
07N49W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and
is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from
07N-15N between 46W-53W.

A tropical wave in moving across the W Caribbean with axis that
extends from 19N78W to 08N79W, moving west 20 to 25 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. A diffluent
flow aloft combined with the wave supports scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms S of 18N between 77W-85W.

A tropical wave is moving across Guatemala with axis from 17N90W
to 09N89W, moving west near 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models
and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection
prevails across the northern portion of the wave N of 14N between
88W-94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 14N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave
near 08N26W to 07N48W. Isolated convection is observed within 100
nm N of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low centered over western Cuba extends N across the
eastern Gulf supporting scattered moderate convection mainly E of
85W. At the surface, a ridge extends across the basin anchored
over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. Expect for the upper-
level low to move NW across the southern Gulf with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is
centered over western Cuba enhancing convection across the NW
Caribbean N of 18N between 74W-86W. A diffluent flow aloft combined
with the tropical wave is supporting scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms S of 18N between 77W-84W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect for the
pressure gradient across the central portion of the basin to
tighten tonight supporting gale force winds over the waters N of
Colombia. Please refer to the section above for details. The
upper-level low over Cuba will move NW over the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Convection is still expected across the SW Caribbean as
the tropical wave moves through the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is observed across the island as this time due
to the proximity of an upper-level low, currently centered over W
Cuba. Daytime heating coupled with southerly flow aloft will give
the island afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday before a tropical wave moves across the island by the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. The upper-level low over
the NW Caribbean covers the W Atlantic supporting showers and
thunderstorms W of 74W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by
a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 32N41W.
Expect for a similar weather pattern to persist during the next
24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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