[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia
tonight through Monday morning. These winds will be due to the
tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge
and the lower pressure over South America. Please see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic was relocated east
along 22W/23W from 7N-14N moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past
24 hours. This relocation is moving the axis to a mean location
between vortices and is using a 24 hour satellite loop. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough that extends southwest to
northeast as seen on the global models. Wave is embedded within
a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is
noted.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N45W through a weak 1016 mb low near 11N47W to 6N46W moving
west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
low amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is
embedded within a high amplitude surge of moisture that extends
to 24N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N
between 47W-50W.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 76W/77W
south of 19N to the coast of Panama moving west 20 to 25 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb
trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a
high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection
is noted.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 87W south of
17N to inland over Central America moving west near 20 to 25 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as
seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to east of the tropical wave along 22W/23W
near 10N21W. The ITCZ begins west of the wave near 9N24W and
continues along 5N40W 8N55W to South America near 7N59W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75/90
nm of a line from 6N36W to 10N40W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm of the
monsoon trough, within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-29W, and
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W-59W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are within 120 nm along the coast
of Africa south of 11N east of 2W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over the southeast CONUS extending a
ridge axis into the Gulf of Mexico from southeast Louisiana to
the Yucatan Channel. The upper low in the west Atlantic and
northwest Caribbean is moving into the Straits of Florida and is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
90 nm of line from 24N85W to over Florida near 27N82W including
Tampa Bay. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible north
of 28N east of 90W to over the north Gulf coast especially the
Florida panhandle. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across central Florida to the Texas coast near
Brownsville. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear
skies this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist through the
middle of the week. A tropical wave will move across the
southwest Gulf monday night and Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low covers the northwest Caribbean into the west
Atlantic centered along the south coast of Cuba near 21N79W and
is generating isolated showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms north of 17N to over Hispaniola between 70W-73W as
well as isolated showers and thunderstorms from 12N-20N between
76W-82W. The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends through
the Yucatan Channel to 16N82W. The easterly trade winds are
banking scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms southwest
of a line from Nicaragua near 14N83W to Panama near 9N79W. This
is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear
skies this afternoon. The central Caribbean tropical wave will
move across Central America Monday. The west Atlantic surface
ridge will support fresh trade winds over most of the basin
through the middle of the week and will reach minimal gale force
in the south-central Caribbean tonight into early Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north
of 17N to over Hispaniola between 70W-73W due to an upper low
centered along the south coast of Cuba. These showers and
thunderstorms could continue through early Monday. Daytime
heating coupled with southerly flow aloft will give the island
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday before the next tropical wave moves across the island
by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low over the northwest Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic south of 29N west of 72W generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms south of 28N west of 77W to over
south Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high over the Azores and a
ridge axis extending from a 1029 mb high near 33N35W along
30N46W 28N67W to across central Florida and into the Gulf of
Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through the middle of the
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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