[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Near gale to gale force winds are expected to develop along the
coast of Colombia beginning 04/0600 UTC and persist for 9 hours
until late Monday morning. These winds will be induced by the
tight pressure gradient generated between a SW North Atlc surface
ridge and the lower pressure over the South American continent
combined with a tropical wave that will move across the area
overnight into Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 08N26W to 15N23W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad and elongated 700 mb troughing
extending from over Dakar Senegal SW to near 06N32W. No
significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 07N45W to 17N43W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ with a 1014 mb low
centered along the wave axis near 11N. The surface low coincides
with 700 mb troughing between 42W-50W and 850 mb relative
vorticity focused near the low. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-18N between 42W-51W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N75W to 19N74W moving W at 15-20 kt.
This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 70W-80W
on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the
SW North Atlc near 28N69W. Scattered moderate convection is from
16N-19N between 69W-72W...and from 19N-23N between 73W-78W. The
northwestern area of convection continues to be enhanced further
by an upper level low centered over eastern Cuba near 21N78W.
Additional scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
across inland portions northern Colombia and portions of the SW
Caribbean Sea waters from 05N-11N between 72W-80W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N84W to 16N84W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 85W-88W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-15N between 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
07N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N31W to 05N36W to 05N45W...and from 09N47W to 06N56W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of a line from
04N09W to 12N17W...from 05N-09N between 23W-29W...and from 03N-
09N between 46W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Overall fair conditions are expected across the Gulf basin this
morning as a surface ridge axis extends from across the NW
Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula to the east-central Mexico
coast near Tampico. Gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic
winds are occurring across the basin and are expected to increase
slightly across the western Gulf waters on Monday and Monday night
an area of low pressure develops across the central U.S. plains.
Thereafter...the ridge axis is forecast to shift north to 28N by
Tuesday and remain in place through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively dry air is noted on water vapor imagery over the
western Caribbean W of 76W providing an overall stable
environment this morning...however middle to upper level moisture
on the western periphery of an upper level low centered near
21N78W is continuing to support lingering isolated showers and
tstms across central and eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal
waters N of 19N between 75W-81W. In addition...a tropical wave
along 85W is also generating enough instability within the dry
air to support scattered showers and tstms in the Gulf of Honduras
region and across the SW Caribbean S of 15N between 80W-86W.
Farther east...another tropical wave along 75W continues to
generate scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 16N between
69W-73W. Otherwise...fresh to strong trades persist due to a
strengthened pressure gradient across the basin between strong
high pressure across the SW North Atlc and lower pressure across
the South American continent. Note above regarding the brief
period of near gale to gale force winds off the coast of Colombia
on Sunday night late into Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently...scattered showers and tstms are possible through the
morning hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted on
water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered W-NW over
eastern Cuba near 21N78W. This environment along with peak daytime
heating and instability will promote scattered showers and tstms
again later today during the late afternoon and early evening
hours. In addition...a tropical wave currently along 75W will
continue to enhance convection across the island through Sunday
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough axis extends from 32N71W SW to over the
central Florida peninsula supporting a few isolated showers across
the NW waters of the SW North Atlc region this morning in the
vicinity of 29N80W. In addition...an upper level low is centered
south of the troughing over eastern Cuba near 21N78W supporting
scattered showers and tstms across eastern Cuba and the adjacent
coastal waters S of 24N between 72W-80W. In between these two
upper level features...a ridge at the surface dominates the
overall synoptic pattern with the ridge axis extending from the
central Atlc near 30N60W to the southern Florida peninsula near
27N80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
is influenced by the 1032 mb high centered in the vicinity of the
Azores near 40N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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