[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Near gale to gale force winds are expected to develop along the
coast of Colombia beginning 04/0600 UTC and persist for 9 hours
until late Monday morning. These winds will be induced by the
tight pressure gradient generated between a SW North Atlc surface
ridge and the lower pressure over the South American continent
combined with a tropical wave that will move across the area
overnight into Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N27W to 14N19W moving W at 15 kt. The
wave coincides with broad and elongated 700 mb troughing extending
from over Dakar Senegal SW to near 05N29W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05N-11N between 19W-27W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N42W to 18N41W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ with a 1015 mb low
centered along the wave axis near 11N. The surface low coincides
with 700 mb troughing between 40W-46W and 850 mb relative
vorticity focused near the low. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-16N between 40W-49W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N73W to 19N70W moving W at 15-20 kt.
This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 67W-76W
on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the
SW North Atlc near 30N62W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 15N-22N between 66W-76W. The convection continues to be
enhanced further by an upper level low centered over eastern Cuba
near 21N78W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N82W to 18N82W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 80W-86W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-17N between 78W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 19N16W to
17N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N28W to 07N34W to 10N42W to 07N57W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-09N between 30W-39W...and from 03N-08N
between 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Overall fair conditions are expected across the Gulf basin this
evening as a surface ridge axis extends from across the NW Bahamas
and southern Florida peninsula to a nearly stationary 1019 mb high
centered near 24N86W to the east-central Mexico coast near
Tampico. Gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are
occurring across the basin and are expected to increase slightly
across the western Gulf waters on Monday and Monday night an area
of low pressure develops across the central U.S. plains.
Thereafter...the ridge axis is forecast to shift north to 28N by
Tuesday and remain in place through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively dry air is noted on water vapor imagery over the
western Caribbean W of 76W providing an overall stable
environment this evening...however middle to upper level moisture
on the western periphery of an upper level low centered near
21N78W is continuing to support lingering isolated showers and
tstms across western Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters N of 21N
between 78W-85W. In addition...a tropical wave along 82W is also
generating enough instability within the dry air to support
scattered showers and tstms from 14N-18N between 82W-86W...and S
of 14N between 75W-85W. Farther east...another tropical wave along
72W continues to generating scattered showers and isolated tstms N
of 15N between 65W-74W...with an area of stronger scattered tstms
occurring across the Windward Passage region from 18N-22N between
70W-76W. This convection is likely enhanced by the aforementioned
upper level low centered over eastern Cuba. Otherwise...fresh to
strong trades persist due to a strengthened pressure gradient
across the basin between strong high pressure across the SW North
Atlc and lower pressure across the South American continent. Note
above regarding the brief period of near gale to gale force winds
off the coast of Colombia on Sunday night late into Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently...scattered showers and tstms are possible through the
overnight hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted
on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered W-NW over
eastern Cuba near 21N78W. This environment along with peak
daytime heating and instability will promote scattered showers and
tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. In addition...a tropical wave currently along 72W
will continue to enhance convection across the island through
Sunday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough axis extends from 32N73W SW to over the
central Florida peninsula supporting a few isolated showers across
the NW waters of the SW North Atlc region this evening N of 30N W
of 67W. In addition...an upper level low is centered south of the
troughing over eastern Cuba near 21N78W supporting scattered
showers and tstms across the Windward Passage region S of 23N
between 70W-75W. In between these two upper level features...a
ridge at the surface dominates the overall synoptic patter with
the ridge axis extending from the central Atlc near 30N50W to the
Florida Straits near 25N80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is influenced by the 1034 mb high
centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 40N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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