[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds are expected to develop along the coast of
Colombia from Sunday night through Monday morning. These winds
will be induced by the tight pressure gradient generated between
the W Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South
America combined with a tropical wave that will move across the
area Sunday night through Monday morning. Please see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 18N39W to 06N41W, moving W near 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough
as seen in global guidance and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
An upper-level low is also in the vicinity of the wave, which is
helping inducing scattered moderate convection S of 14N between
39W-45W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N70W to 09N70W, moving W at about 20 to 25 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough
as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. An upper-level low is also in the environment of this
wave enhancing convection N of 14N between 65W-73W affecting
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and their adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is moving across the W Caribbean extends with axis
from 18N79W to 07N80W, moving W near 20 to 25 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moderate moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. A diffluent
flow aloft prevails in the environment of this wave, which
combined with the proximity of the monsoon trough is supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
southern portion of the wave mainly S of 12N between 75W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N17W to 07N27W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 09N38W then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N43W
to 06N55W. Aside from the activity associated with the tropical
wave, isolated moderate convection prevails S of the Monsoon
Trough mainly N of 10N and E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered over the SE Gulf near 24N87W. A surface trough
extends across the NE Gulf and over northern Florida from 28N86W
to 31N82W. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate
convection over the Florida Peninsula which is also affecting the
eastern portion of the Gulf mainly E of 84W. Scatterometer data
depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin.
Expect for the ridge to persist during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
persist across the northern Caribbean supported by an upper-level
low centered over eastern Cuba near 19N65W. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are also observed across the southern
portion of the basin S of 12N between 75W-84W due to the
combination of a tropical wave, the Monsoon Trough, and an upper-
level low. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the majority of the basin except W of 80W where light to
gentle easterlies prevail. Expect for the waves to continue moving
W with convection. Gale force winds are expected to develop across
the waters N of Colombia by Sunday evening. Please refer to the
section above for details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the island at this
time as an upper-level low prevails over the area and combines
with a tropical wave. This activity will continue through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Gulf of Mexico into northern
Florida. This feature combined with a diffluent flow aloft is
inducing scattered moderate convection across the W Atlantic
mainly W of 77W. An upper-level low is centered over E Cuba
enhancing convection across the Greater Antilles and the Atlantic
waters S of 22N between 65W-77W. A tropical wave is moving across
the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for
details. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 40N29W. The surface
ridge will persist through early next week. Fresh winds between
the Turks and Caicos and the coast of Hispaniola will pulse to
strong each evening through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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