[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING, in a few hours...

The 6-hour forecast, starting at 04/0000 UTC, consists of
northeast-to-east gale-force winds from 11N to 13N between 73W
and 77W. Expect also sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N26W 10N28W 06N29W,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 06N to 10N between 26W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18N50W 13N51W 07N52W,
moving westward 15 KNOTS. A 1016 MB low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 13N. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 16N southward between 46W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 20N southward
moving westward 15 KNOTS. The monsoon trough is along border of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 07N to 10N between 73W and 77W, from 07N to Panama
between 78W and 80W, and from 11N to 12N between 82W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to 10N26W. The ITCZ starts from 09N30W to 07N40W, and
to 08N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 06N to
09N between 11W and 15W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 16N
southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Mexico near
24N99W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
Texas, and Mexico from 22N to 30N between 96W and 104W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N90W, moving
through the area of the Yucatan Peninsula/Guatemala, and heading
toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 14N to 22N between 85W and
95W, from El Salvador to the northern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Earlier convective precipitation that was in the
interior of the Yucatan Peninsula has moved westward, into the
Gulf of Mexico, and it has weakened.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KVAF, and KVBS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville, in the Corpus Christi metropolitan
area, and in Tomball. Light rain in Palacios. from LOUISIANA:
to ALABAMA: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 21N80W.
Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the
Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea from 16N
to 30N between 73W and 87W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 20N from 82W westward,
from 18N to 20N between western sections of Jamaica and 80W, and
from the Windward Passage northwestward across Cuba to 82W.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N southward
from 64W eastward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

Upper level southeasterly wind flow is moving across the island.
Hispaniola now is to the southeast of the 21N80W upper level
cyclonic circulation center.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 04/0000
UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona as of 04/0000 UTC:
few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the first half of day
one will consist of east-to-southeast wind flow. The second half
of day one will consist of northeasterly wind flow. Day two will
consist of northeasterly wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that east-to-southeast wind flow will be moving
across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the
southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 MB shows that east-to-southeast wind flow will cover the
area for the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N26W to 26N32W to 23N38W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 40W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes
through a 1030 MB high pressure center that is near 32N40W, to
29N50W, 28N69W, across the northwestern Bahamas and south Florida,
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the lower Texas coast of the
Gulf of Mexico.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net