[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
02N10E TO 04N11W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N20N
TO 03N30W TO 03N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM A
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
TO WINDS DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT E TO SE
WINDS E OF 85W. A WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFFSHORE
THE MEXICO COAST FROM 23N98W TO 19N96W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF
AND FL STRAITS AS THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT
DRIFTS N OVER THE AREA WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF
THE TRADE WIND FLOW AFFECTING WATERS MAINLY N OF 14N. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N85W TO 18N86W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N48W TO 26N58W WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N72W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N34W TO 25N34W AND IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND NEAR THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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