[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 04N
TO 04N01W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N01W TO 03N10W...TO 03N20W
AND 02N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 18W AND 31W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 28N14W 16N36W 06N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO
26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 25N93W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR...KBBF.

MVFR...KBQX. MVFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL AND WESLACO. IFR IN FALFURRIAS.
MVFR IN ALICE. MVFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI.
MVFR IN VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS...AND FROM THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE.
FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
VALPARAISO. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N60W 23N66W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N66W TO 21N73W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W...AND CURVING TO EASTERN
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W
25N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
23N50W 22N72W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N TO 23N.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
BERMUDA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 17N.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY
FROM 12N NORTHWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.33 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FOG IS BEING REPORTED. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW FOR EACH DAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
AT THE START OF THE CURRENT TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN WESTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECT CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...BECOMING WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT EAST-TO-
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 26N31W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 32N33W...TO 26N31W...TO 20N36W
12N39W AND 08N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N69W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND 25N93W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
26N85W TO WESTERN HONDURAS.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N34W...TO 26N45W 22N55W...AND TO 15N60W JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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