[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
03N10E TO 03N06W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
06N20N TO 02N30W TO 01N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRES CENTERS IN THE
NW ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHERE IT PROVIDES GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WIND FLOW.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM
THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND NE BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES IN THAT REGION. ON THE NW
GULF...FOG IS BEING REPORTED WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE TEXAS
COASTLINE BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE TO E OVER ATLC WATERS AND S FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DURING MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE...SE WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. PASSING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND
REMAINDER NE CARIBBEAN AS SHALLOW MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUE. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS
SHALLOW MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT BEGINS TO STALL NEAR 35N40W...ENTERING
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N49W AND CONTINUING SW TO 23N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
EAST OF THE FRONT...A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N33W TO 26N33W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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