[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...ON THE
WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN AGADIR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 1118 UTC
INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE S COAST OF MOROCCO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
01N10W TO 03N03W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N14W TO 01N30W TO
01N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 04E S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 05N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF TODAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS COVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF
92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE NE TOWARD
BERMUDA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 20N74W TO 18N80W TO 11N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 240 NM NW OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADES SUPPORTS
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTS CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE HAITI W OF 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
AND FAIR CONDITIONS COVER HISPANIOLA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS.
THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N65W TO 30N70W TO 31N77W. AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH NO CONVECTION NOTED. THE
EASTERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 23N69W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N74W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN
240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...EXCEPT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
29N24W TO 24N29W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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