[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...ON THE
WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRAND LARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN AGADIR
INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE S COAST OF MOROCCO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N12W TO 01N31W TO 01N44W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER NW ATLC
WATERS NEAR 32N72W COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDS SW INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT PROVIDES LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN
FLOW...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF 93W WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
FRESH WINDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS INTO THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE GULF WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NE OVER ATLC WATERS AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...SE WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF
WATERS TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S TO
A BASE NEAR 30N AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE EASTERNMOST
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 18N80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS COASTAL
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THUS SUPPORTING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE FAR NW BASIN AND THE
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS
ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE AHEAD OF
FRONT EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW BASIN
SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO
WESTERN JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND
IN SOME INSTANCES HAZE AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADES MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N72W
COVERS MOST OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S TO A BASE NEAR
30N AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT IS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N53W SW TO 24N62W WHERE IT STALLS TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM  30N60W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
STALLS NW TO 30N76W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH E OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MERGE THE
LEADING FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATER
WHERE IT WILL STALL MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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