[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N63W TO 21N74W. EXPECT SOUTH-
TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11
FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN...AGADIR.
THE PART 4...OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INDICATES THAT THE
NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR...DECREASING LATER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 01N04E...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 05W...
TO 03N13W 01N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 01S38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD...AND
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBBF AND KGVX. MVFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN BAY CITY AFTER LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST
FOUR HOURS OR SO. LIFR IN SUGARLAND. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE
LAKE CHARLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AFTER LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE LAST THREE HOURS OR SO. THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION IS
REPORTING NO CEILING...AFTER IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST
FOUR HOURS. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN BILOXI AND PASCAGOULA.
ALABAMA...IFR AT THE DOWNTOWN MOBILE AIRPORT. MVFR AT THE GULF
SHORES AIRPORT. FLORIDA...IFR AT THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION.
NO CEILING NOW IN MILTON AFTER LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
LAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. MVFR IN DESTIN. MVFR AT THE TAMPA
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N63W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N65W 24N70W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N77W
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 19N77W...CURVING TO 17N81W...AND TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N57W TO 29N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300
NM TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W 26N60W 20N72W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N72W
TO THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 80W...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.55 IN
BERMUDA.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 17N60W TO
17N70W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY
FROM 12N NORTHWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO
800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
25N53W...TO THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL SURROUND HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
26N27W...20N34W 16N42W...AND 05N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W...TO 25N53W...TO THE
CENTER OF HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net