[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 989 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 37N68W. THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA NEAR 32N71W TO
23N79W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TO 15N86W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N07W TO 02N33W TO 00N47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
MAINLY W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
21N97W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES NE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W TO
15N86W. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N77W TO 14N83W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY W OF 78W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED
BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
WATERS MAINLY E OF 79W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN STALLING ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
FOR SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC WATERS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N71W TO 23N79W. THE
GALE WARNING COVER THE WATERS N OF 28N AND W OF 69W. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT W OF 68W. TO THE
SE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N74W TO 22N77W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1042 HIGH CENTERED NEAR
38N23W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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