[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 995 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 41N62W. THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA NEAR 30N67W TO
18N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N63W
TO 28N67W...WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N09W TO 03N26W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N31W TO COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 02N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04S TO 07N W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE SW BASIN NEAR 22N96W
THAT PROVIDES LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS W OF 89W AND NW TO N MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT
AND REACH THE NE BASIN SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE...LEAVING THE BASIN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PROVIDE
STABILITY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC
WATERS BY WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE BASIN S OF
27N. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NW GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST N ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED BY A 995 MB LOW NEAR 41N62W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA TO 18N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR
14N83W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
HAZE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...HONDURAS AS WELL AS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN JAMAICA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT
OVER HONDURAS ADJACENT WATERS. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING
OVER THE NE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
THE FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E-SE WHILE THE
PORTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL STALL WHILE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATE EARLY SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY RIDGING
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL MOIST
AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER
HISPANIOLA LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 995 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 41N62W. THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA NEAR 30N67W TO
18N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGING COVERING THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING WHEN IT WILL
BEGIN TO STALL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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