[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 135 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/
AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE PART 4...OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...INDICATES THE THREAT OF NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR...AND
LOCALLY IN CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N02W 02N10W
01N19W 02N28W 02N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 02N BETWEEN
26W AND 31W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
10W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 20N84W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 25N79W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N70W AND 22N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA
TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 88W WESTWARD. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS EVERYWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN BAY CITY. IFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LIFR IN
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN PATTERSON. FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA...TO BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...THE SKIES AT THE MACDILL AIR
FORCE BASE HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM VFR/NO CEILINGS TO MVFR...OFF
AND ON...DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO CUBA NEAR
23N82W...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N82W...EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. 600 MB TO 800 MB
WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THAT SAME AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE ELSE...AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS PRESENT IN THIS SAME AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY
FROM 12N NORTHWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
28N53W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE AT BARAHONA. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1000 FEET...AND FOG...ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND WILL MOVE
TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL END UP ABOUT
200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL TOUCH HISPANIOLA.  SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME VARIABLE...AND
THEN IT WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST AS AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE END OF DAY ONE EVENTUALLY WILL
BECOME EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THEN IT WILL SHOOT INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N21W TO 27N30W 26N38W 20N42W
11N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N53W...TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
TO WESTERN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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