[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 26N89W TO
24N93W TO 18N92W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING GALE FORCE
WINDS S OF 23N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
03N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR
KEY TO 26N89W TO24N93W TO 18N92W. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA TO 24N86W TO THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED
WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W
CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGERY. GOES-R IFR/LIFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCTS INDICATED LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE
WERE CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING THE ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
GULF AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SPRAWLING 1042 HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO APPROACH
THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO
THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W THROUGH GRAND BAHAMA TO
JUST S OF MIAMI FLORIDA. 29N80W TO 32N78W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 72W. A BROAD
1042 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N34W AND DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE S OF THIS FEATURE...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
31N26W TO 29N35W THEN AS A SHEAR LINE TO 28N45W. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB
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